Common sense in the foreign exchange market
For a start, a little episode of the last days and weeks. I have one very good friend – the head of the operational department of a very large bank that is in the TOP-10. And her mother is the director of one of the Moscow branches of Sberbank (so that you understand the scale, the Moscow branch is not a room with 3 tellers and 1 cashier, but a branch serving an entire Moscow district with a population of 1.5 million people). That is such an advanced family of bankers, which should be aware of everything and everything … well, as far as the currency is concerned, that’s for sure!
So, Friday, 12 o’clock in the afternoon … My aforementioned friend calls me and in a shaking, almost crying voice, the same burning question asks: what to do, where to run, what to buy? And now guess from one time when it was? Yes, yes, you are absolutely right, it was at that very moment when the dollar on the stock exchange passed for 50 rubles, and the euro – for 60. As experts usually say in such cases, the hysterical phase of growth began. And no posts and involvement in the “high circle” do not save from panic.
I gave this example to show that this is an absolutely ordinary picture: most people buy currency, stocks and other assets at the very top, that is, at the most expensive and, of course, the worst price, and sell, on the contrary, at the very bottom – The lowest and unprofitable price. This is natural for professionals, but it is a shame for everyone else, the so-called “dummies.” But then what to do? The most important thing is common sense. Do not go where you are not an expert, do not do what you do not know, etc.
First look around you, assess the situation and the situation. Then look at yourself and your family – what do you need? What do you want? At the same time, try to think sensibly and discard such meaningless and completely harmful thoughts like “I want everything at once! I want to invest a little and earn a lot! I want to do nothing and become a millionaire! ” Well, if such thoughts do not leave you, write fairy tales! They say that it helps very well, and not only in moral, but sometimes even in material terms.
And what does common sense tell us about currency? First, a currency can only be discussed if you have some money left after your mandatory expenses for your current life. If all the money goes to food, housing, clothing, children and your own, then forget about currency and live peacefully on the rubles that you earn with your honest work. And in no case, never try, as they say, “speculate in a quick way”. Your chances in this game in any case are always zero!
Therefore, we will continue to talk about those “three kopecks” that still remain after the mandatory spending. So, we have “three pennies” left – in what currency should they be kept?
numbering-small.png Do not panic! Do not run after the crowd!
If we are going to spend them in the near future – for example, to buy gifts for them on New Year’s Eve, then we should not fuss, either. You will lose more on the difference between buying and selling in the exchange office. Another thing is if we want to accumulate a more or less significant amount over the course of a year or even several years. Here it is worth thinking and looking at the current economic situation in the country. Unfortunately, this has already become obvious to everyone: our economy is currently sick and the disease will only get worse for the time being.
There are many different and sometimes diametrically opposite forecasts about the ruble exchange rate. However, most economists agree that in the next year or two, and perhaps even three, the Russian currency will weaken. Therefore, there is a reason to transfer part of your money into currency. Which one? First of all, in dollars and euros, as the most liquid and popular currencies. On the other hand, the Chinese yuan and the Swiss franc feel good. But these are already more exotic things and it must be taken into account that it will be more difficult to buy and sell them. In what proportion to buy? It all depends on personal preferences. For example, if someone travels to Europe often enough, the euro should be larger. If someone has a business in China, then you can stock up on a yuan more.
But in any case, do not forget about common sense. And what does he tell us? Banal thing – do not put eggs in one basket. Do not “pack up” the dollar to the maximum! Percent 30 free cash – in dollars, 30 percent – in euros. Well, the rest is still in rubles – on deposit. Moreover, the deposit rates have now exceeded 10% per annum! If the ruble will strengthen, buy the currency in the same proportions – both at 43 rubles and 40 rubles … If, of course, there will be such a course! And most importantly, do not panic, do not run after the crowd! Just calmly buy all the time (and not at the last moment!) For free money with different assets – currency, mutual fund units, gold coins. Do it slowly, little by little, but regularly. And then no change in exchange rates will worry you!